The 1918 flu virus plot

Two computer science pioneers have a column in the NY Times denouncing the publication of the genome of the virus responsible for the 1918 influenza epidemic. (Thanks, Instapundit.)

The pair imply a plot straight out a movie: al-Qaeda molecular biologists will manipulate the modern milquetoast flu virus to recreate the 1918 superbug. Epidemic. Horror. Panic in the streets. Megadeath. Film at eleven.

The authors, Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy, offer a non-solution solution:

The precise genome could potentially be shared with scientists with suitable security assurances.

It’s a non-solution because genome sequences are like software: anyone in the research lab — faculty, research assistants, graduate students, IT support staff — could steal it undetectably. If al-Qaeda has teams of biologists, pipettes a-glistening, just waiting for that genome, they assuredly can sneak someone onto the IT staff of an institution working with the virus.

I posit that embargoing the 1918 flu genome to “trusted” scientists would actually make us more vulnerable to the flu. Here’s why: much of the work in academic science is carried out by graduate and postdoctoral students — more and more of whom (especially in the sciences) come from abroad [1]. (For instance, 35% of MIT’s grad students are foreign.) If just looking at the genome requires a security clearance (not the quickest process, as or so I’ve been told), I imagine most virologists will choose to work on something with more funding and less bureaucracy.

To embargo the last really deadly flu genome because of a terrorist threat would be downright dangerous. The world faces a far more immediate threat from a deadly avian flu strain than it does from al-Qaeda virologists. Somehow, making flu research harder strikes me as a bad idea. K & J analogize viral genomes to atom bomb blueprints, glossing over the crucial difference: an atom-bomb blueprint won’t help you radiation-proof a human being. But a viral genome will help you devise a treatment.

Bruce Schneier noted that that terrorists “don’t do movie plots.” Angelo Codevilla observed that it would be dead easy (and would shut down the nation overnight) if terrorists coordinated synchronized Molotov-cocktail attacks on school buses across the country. Gasoline and glass bottles are a lot easier to come by than reagents, pipettes, and know-how.

Here’s how to reconstruct the 1918 virus on the cheap: go somewhere with cold soil and dig up a corpse. I saw it in a movie (“Virus Fugitivo”), so it must work. (Oops, did I just tell terrorists how to start an epidemic? My bad.)

09:51 EST | permalink | /issues/terrorism

Oh, great.

The U.S. Attorney’s office issued a warning regarding terrorists who disguise themselves as homeless people:

Homeless people easily blend into urban landscapes, the message said.

“This is particularly true of our mass transit systems, where homeless people tend to loiter unnoticed,” the e-mail said.

It referred to a recent incident in Somerville, Mass., in which a police officer became suspicious about someone dressed as a street person. The officer questioned the man, discovered he had a passport from a “country of interest” — typically a Middle Eastern or South Asian nation — and a checkbook with a questionable address, the e-mail said. The investigation is continuing, it said.

“Mass transit” in Somerville presumably means Porter or Davis on the Red Line.

Cute.

Addendum: I thought I’d see if someone in the Yahoo forums for the article had a link to the “State Department report that was issued last week” that the letter referenced. Big mistake:

19:37 EST | permalink | /issues/terrorism

Non-sequitur of the day

(I suggest skipping this if you’re easily offended.)

A while back, Alex pointed me to one of the most tasteless asides I’ve ever seen (I’d missed it completely while looking at the same material.)

Read this Jack Chick comic. Notice anything unusual? Look carefully at the right-hand panel of the tenth row (this one).

What does the airport have to do with the story?

Jack Chick is apparently a good deal more tasteless than his detractors will admit.

12:59 EST | permalink | /issues/terrorism

The talking points guy must have been out to lunch

• “Civilians get onto aircraft, and their luggage is X-rayed, but the cargo hold is not X- rayed.” —Sen. Kerry, Sept. 29.

• “When you get on an airplane, your bag is X- rayed, but the cargo hold isn’t X-rayed. Do you feel safer?” —Sen. Kerry, Oct. 8.

• “People who fly on airplanes today, the cargo hold is not X-rayed, but the baggage is.” —Sen. Kerry, Oct. 13.

There it is – in EVERY PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE, Sen. Kerry managed to mention that airplane baggage is X-rayed, but airplane cargo holds aren’t.

First, the obvious: if a terrorist can get a bomb onto a plane without slipping it onto his person or into his baggage (for instance, because he’s a mechanic, baggage handler, or flight crew member), chances are good that he can slip it onboard after any cargo-hold X-ray screening.

Second, how on earth do you X-ray a cargo hold? Do you put the ENTIRE PLANE in a hanger-sized X-ray machine? Do you paste X-ray film all over the outer hull and have a guy walk through the inside with a portable X-ray source, sweeping the walls and hoping that he doesn’t get cancer? Has anyone, anywhere, ever, X-rayed the entire cargo hold of a large commercial airliner, much less in the 30-to-60 minutes of cleaning/prep time typically allocated between flights?

Why does Sen. Kerry keep mentioning this?

Incidentally, Sen. Edwards flubbed it on Oct. 5 : “We’re screening our passengers going onto airplanes, but we don’t screen the cargo.” Maybe he’s referring to cargo planes (FedEx, etc.) I doubt it.

02:32 EST | permalink | /issues/terrorism

Heh.

“Telemarketers are annoying. But lumping them into the same chapter as torturers and terrorists is going a bit too far!”

21:45 EST | permalink | /issues/terrorism

Still life of a copyeditor asleep at the switch

(As seen on drudgereport.com.) This one has to be a gag:

The FBI is warning police nationwide to be alert for people carrying almanacs, cautioning that the popular reference books covering everything from abbreviations to weather trends could be used for terrorist planning.

In a bulletin sent Christmas Eve to about 18,000 police organizations, the FBI said terrorists may use almanacs “to assist with target selection and pre-operational planning.”

It urged officers to watch during searches, traffic stops and other investigations for anyone carrying almanacs, especially if the books are annotated in suspicious ways.

22:39 EST | permalink | /issues/terrorism

Maybe it’s a commentary on the low humidity of modern airliners

Maybe I’m just not hip enough to grok this new wave in aviation security. Maybe I’m just old fashioned. But I’m still curious: if you’re going to go to the trouble of seating air marshals in real airplane seats for target practice, would it not be better to substitute the “Terrorists aboard the 747” range backdrop for the “Wild West” range backdrop?

17:46 EST | permalink | /issues/terrorism